Tehran is on the ropes, and conditions are unlikely to change. Its weakening shifts the regional game. Jerusalem should open to Arab parties to fully capitalize on the opportunities.

On the eve of a possible massive attack on Iran, the recent inconclusive Israeli elections might yet open new geopolitical opportunities for the country and the region. In the vote, neither of the two main candidates, Benjamin Netanyahu or Gadi Eisenkot, won a clear majority, and the country is searching for a new direction before even forming a new government.

Two trends, one internal and the other external, may push Israel on a different track.

Iran’s fall?

One is about Iran. It is on the ropes. The morality police, the system’s keystone for 50 years, have vanished or thinned out on the streets.

Tehran may partially control Hormuz, but it does so at the cost of destroying the nation. The US chokehold on Iranian oil exports is stifling the country.

Consumer prices are up 88.7% year over year; job losses.

The present historical moment may seem oddly similar to that of 80 years ago. Then the dispute was how to handle the USSR; now it’s about China.

Toward the end of 1949, two momentous events – the Russian nuclear test and the triumph of the Chinese revolution – compelled Washington to rethink its international strategies.  Well aware that his predecessor, the late Franklin Roosevelt, had a superior grasp of such issues, in 1947 President Truman set up a Policy Planning Office in the State Department directed by the highly-regarded Russia expert George Kennan.

Though adamant about containing the Soviet Union, Kennan chose to step down in May 1949 when his initiative for meaningful dialogue with Moscow was rejected. A more militant Paul Nitze replaced Kennan as Director. In January 1950 Truman asked his Policy Planning Office to analyze and report on the new situation in Russia and China. Nitze foresaw an uphill battle for his proactive rollback policy choices.

The main writer of NSC 68, Paul Nitze, had been a wealthy Wall Street investor who aspired to a career in public service. In.