Putin out of the fog of war?

It is always tough to tell what’s what in the fog of war, and it has been even more challenging to forecast the results in a conflict where one side, Ukraine, is badly outnumbered by the other, Russia. Comparisons on paper told one story: Ukraine, without a real army 15 months ago, would be steamrolled […]

Good health to you, Mr. Berlusconi… and to Italy

He was the idol of many men and women. He had it all—the money, the power, the girls, the friends. The money: He was one of the richest men in the world, coming from nothing. The power: He was the most potent Italian politician in two decades. He dominated national politics and its culture. He […]

Triangle impossible, India-China-US, and a different Silk Road

Russia’s failure in its invasion of Ukraine has weakened Moscow’s old ties with India, for decades a bedrock of Indian foreign relations, and brought to the fore the most complicated geopolitical puzzle of the “new Cold War” — between India, China, and the United States. New Delhi is shifting its position between the other two, […]

A European price to end the Ukrainian war

The only way “Old Europe” has to retain its clout is to stop its hesitations, decisively help Ukraine win its war quickly, and then find a future settlement for Russia fitting a Eurasian balance. Without it, France and Germany could pay a long-term high price. The Russian offensive in Ukraine is falling apart even before […]

Chinese Balloons and US Alchemic Leadership

“The political fracas is already underway in Washington. Republicans claim the Biden administration showed weakness in allowing the balloon to enter the US. Airspace. Officials counter that the previous administration, under President Donald Trump, didn’t react to several similar missions over US states and territories. Yet those previous incursions didn’t go on for so long, or reach so far […]

Chinese trust drain?

A forty-year bond of trust between entrepreneurs and the government, the backbone of China’s meteoric rise, is in jeopardy because of short-term mistakes and long-term neglect. Some Chinese are apparently voting with their feet or lack of activity against what they don’t like. It fuels and is also fueled by growing foreign mistrust of China.[1] It […]

Thanks, but no Tanks. Really?

The German decision to ask for more time to decide whether to supply Ukraine with Leopard tanks may actually have no teeth. After consultations and protracted pondering, Berlin could eventually decide to deliver the weapons. They are necessary to strike hard against the Russians in Kyiv’s long-announced spring offensive. It is not just about foreign […]