A new global horizon is looming after the White House shambles. Can the US and its allies patch up a way forward and begin to shape something like a modern “Holy Roman Empire?”
This week could be crucial to start outlining a way forward after the spat at the White House. It’s a massive mess for Ukraine, but not a much smaller one for the United States, which could weaken its global grip as many allies become wary of their alliance.
European diplomacy is in full swing, guided by the UK and France, trying to patch up the yawning gap between US President Donald Trump and his Ukrainian counterpart, Volodymyr Zelensky.
The fiasco opened a can of worms, casting a shadow over the other end of the Eurasian continent: After Ukraine, will Russia move on against Korea and Japan? What about China with Taiwan? And what will the US do?
The spat created the possibility that Zelensky might have to fight on without US support—a disaster. It’s bad for Trump, who, despite everything, de facto gets more ensnared in European affairs as he tries to concentrate on Asia. Trump might need a quick way out of this predicament, or there could be troubles in Asia difficult to handle since his engagement in Europe.
Besides, from a purely diplomatic angle, if he needs to talk to Putin, he needs at least to speak to Zelensky. It’s hard to argue that you need diplomacy with Putin and not with Zelensky.
There has been much talk about Yalta (the 1944 agreement that divided the world into spheres of influence) in recent weeks, with the idea of having Trump carve the world with Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping.
It seems far-fetched. At Yalta, the US, Soviet, and British armies dominated the world and were allies; the enemies were almost entirely defeated, and other allies had made not enormous contributions.
No Yalta
Then, the United States, perhaps to isolate the Soviets and send a signal about the future world architecture, included both France and China among the five permanent members of the UN Security Council. These two countries, however, had mainly been occupied by the enemy. So, they were in the UN, but not at Yalta.
Today, the USA, Russia, and China do not dominate the world with their armies; they are not allies against a common enemy. More importantly, many small or large countries challenge their power and role. The primary role of the United States is indisputable, even if it is not total and all-encompassing. Yet, even more countries totally or partially challenge the role of Russia and China, and they have much less power.
The USA is in a difficult position, almost like the main house of the ancient Holy Roman Empire. The Holy Emperor had the largest army but had to both face external enemies and keep his princes in line. Because if enemies and princes rose up at the same time, he could not take on all of them. It happened with the Thirty Years’ War at the height of the Habsburg power. It was tough. Now it might be even harder.
It’s not just about rearming the Europeans or imposing tariffs on neighbors. Trump may need to reorder “imperial rules.” He needs a way forward for the US and the world, or the global order could soon crumble down. Russia and China may be ready to step in for pieces of it, but not for the overall order. Beijing’s economy could collapse without its trade surplus with the US and the EU. Everybody is walking on very thin ice, but none, like the incumbent superpower, has as much to lose.
Finis
