Diplomacy is in full gear, seeking a pause to wars and tussles. Russia and China may not trust the US, but all may need a truce; it might be fragile. Beijing is trying to get out of a corner.
In the game of friendship and suspicion among the grand capitals of the Eurasian landmass—Moscow, Beijing, and Tehran—the real question is whether they are coordinating their negotiations against the United States.
Chinese diplomacy is carefully crafted. It’s no accident that hours before the US met with Ukraine to agree on an outline for a peace agreement to offer to Russia, Beijing leaked news of US president Donald Trump trip to China in April. On Friday, China will hold a meeting in Beijing with Russia and Iran on the Iranian “nuclear issue.”
Moreover, the Hong Kong newspaper South China Morning Post argued that “Washington is no longer committed to defending Japan, South Korea, or Taiwan.” Thus, it suggested that Xi is going to the United States to reach a substantial pact on the most sensitive topic: Taiwan, the island de facto independent but de jure part of one China. The SCMP implied that the US would retreat from Asia just as it is retreating from Europe.
Trump may try to push Russia and China separately. He possibly talks individually to each to extract better concessions from both. But it’s a tightrope. It’s unclear how the US will manage to balance them. Will they trust or mistrust the US equally? Will all other European and Asian countries involved in the complex deal simply tag along? Or will they try to carve their own political space? There are a lot of moving parts to fit in. On both ends of the Sino-Russia landmass, Europe and Japan or South Korea are trying to coordinate more among themselves while keeping an intense dialogue with the US. But all are worried.
China’s Dilemma
Still, China may be in the most challenging situation. It faces a three-pronged dilemma with Ukraine:
- China is surrounded if Russian President Vladimir Putin stops the war and flips to the US.
- If Russia falls apart, China will be surrounded as well.
- If the war continues, China will be trapped between:
A. Trading with Russia and thus being resented by Russians who consider the Chinese profiteers in a war destroying Russia
B. Truly helping Russia and bleeding economically when they are already in a difficult situation.
China’s only way out would be to be sure Russia is making a peace deal on Ukraine (stopping the economic hemorrhaging) without breaking its alliance with Beijing. It’s likely (see source), but then the US could lose its end of the bargain in its deal with Russia.
There are far more moving parts on the table. It’s highly uncertain. A safer path for Beijing could be first to stab Russia in the back—closing a deal with the US. Beijing stops its support for Moscow, Russia collapses, and China picks up pieces of the shattered Russian territory. It could be tempting in Beijing and scary for Moscow, just as a comprehensive Russian peace deal can be tempting for Moscow and scary for Beijing—provided neither thinks it’d just be a short reprieve from a larger reckoning with the US or its allies. However, America’s primary concern is with China; Russia has just driven its expansionist push on that concern.
It is to be a game of guile and brinkmanship on many sides. The US may seek a deal, but there may be a temporary delay. Russia and China may agree with it or, projected on a longer term, may seek a settlement or push the envelope of US perceived confusion and disarray among its allies.
Temporary measures should be welcomed as everybody was plunged into a period of war without much preparation, and now everybody needs to face a long period of tension.
The concrete possibility of deception and mistrust limits every talk, yet short of a full-fledged global war, it could be the only way forward for now.
