The tension between Trump and Zelensky at the White House may be not just a spat but a display of a serious strategic American fissure in how to deal with Russia and China.
In early January 2020, as soon as the news of Covid from China spread and Beijing ordered a lockdown on several cities, the United States could have sealed China off from transportation, communication, and trade, like what happened in 2003 with the SARS outbreak. It didn’t because perhaps the administration underestimated the gravity of the situation and feared it would trigger a global economic crisis that could prevent President Donald Trump’s reelection. In fact, the presidency could have capitalized on Covid, blamed the Chinese for the ensuing economic crisis, and secured reelection. In any case Trump didn’t get re-elected.
In June 2022, Russian mercenary chief Yevgeny Prigozhin rose against Russian president Vladimir Putin and started marching on Moscow. The US and Ukraine might have ordered an immediate cease-fire, proclaimed a victory, and waited for things to play out. They didn’t because possibly the US feared that it would trigger the collapse of Russia, create an unprecedented political black hole in the world, and leave some 6,000 nuclear warheads unattended and up for grabs in the middle of Siberia. It opened channels with Putin to reassure him. The Chinese realized what was happening and feared that Putin would fall or turn against China. They stepped in to prop him up against Ukraine.
The failure to act promptly on these two occasions might show that the US is not ready to pay a high price to achieve its presumed political goals, such as knocking down China or Russia. It may want to reach accommodations that improve its standing but do not rock the boat. It is a very responsible stakeholder, despite some public screaming and yelling, and it has no real plot to annihilate its adversaries, contrary to some conspiracy theories.
Plan B?
This attitude is behind the ongoing peace negotiations with Russia in Turkey. There is serious preparation to corral Europe and rein in Ukraine. But the spat at the White House proves that not all Ts are crossed—the plan de facto could call for Ukraine and Zelensky to be the sacrificial lamb of the peace. But if Ukraine does not play along, it’s unclear what Plan B is.
Moreover, the idea of peeling off Russia and China from one another is easier said than done. First it should be a secret to work. It evidently is not. Neither trusts the US. They believe America says one thing today and does another thing tomorrow. Therefore, they could be ready to take whatever peace offer comes their way but very reluctant to be hooked by the US line, knowing full well of timeo Danaos et dona ferentes beware of Greeks bearing gifts. They all know their Virgil.
In other words, the plan, reasonable as it may sound, may not be fully grounded in reality. Meanwhile, transatlantic ties between the US and EU are troubled; ties in the Asia Pacific are not sailing smoothly either.
The central piece there is Taiwan, the island de facto independent but de jure part of one China. The US wants Taiwan not to change its political status but to arm itself to prevent a PRC (Peoples’ Republic of China) invasion. However, in Taiwan, there are three forces. One sides with the PRC; one doesn’t want to move, arm, or change the political status; and the third wants to re-arm but change the political status.
In other words, in Taiwan, there is no political partner for what the US sees as a possible strategy vis-à-vis the PRC.
Moreover, while Trump and Zelensky clashed before the global cameras, Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russia’s ex-Minister of Defense Sergei Shoigu met in Beijing, reaffirming their unshakable bond. The two available footages on TV worldwide didn’t help US diplomacy in the region.
Now, the question for the US is how to move forward. If America doesn’t recover some kind of grip on Ukraine, peace talks with Russia will become useless. Washington cannot deliver Ukraine; it can only leave Ukraine to be conquered by Russia, but this is a very different deal.
The US might want to rethink its strategy in depth.
One of the comments in Ukraine:
If we strip away all emotions — they knew exactly where they were going. They knew they would be insulted and humiliated because even the most clueless analyst has long realized that Trump cannot negotiate with Putin and will shift the blame onto Ukraine, claiming it’s because they refuse to negotiate. They knew this gang of thugs and psychopaths is extremely deceitful and would exploit every word against us. Zelenskyy should have been better prepared for this visit, and the focus really needed to be on the results.
Zelenskyy managed to navigate that ridiculous suit episode, though a bit of humor could have made that bastard look like an even bigger idiot. Overall, it was okay. But in my view, Zelenskyy made four major mistakes.
1. He absolutely should not have started that monologue about the ocean and how America will eventually feel the war it obviously triggered Trump. In general, he should have deliberately removed any patronizing tone, no matter how justified he might feel. Yes, he has been leading a country at war for three years while those privileged clowns are, in comparison, pathetic fools. But unfortunately, Americans elected them to run the so called “free world,” and Zelenskyy was in the sacred Oval Office the very place where America lectures the world on how to live. He needed to acknowledge that reality.
2. He should have opened with an outpouring of gratitude for the Javelins, because it’s true Ukraine got them thanks to Trump. That way, they wouldn’t have had any reason to accuse Zelenskyy of not being appreciative enough. Plus, Trump, like any insecure loser, loves being praised.
3. Did anyone even brief Zelenskyy on American cultural norms? In the U.S., direct contradiction is perceived as negativity and total disagreement with the entire conversation. If you rewatch the video, you’ll see they all started losing it the moment Zelenskyy began outright rejecting their points. For example, when he asked Vance, “What diplomacy?” and tried to argue that diplomacy doesn’t work. The better approach would have been: “Yes, I agree. Maybe you’ll have better success because we’ve spent three years trying to negotiate on various levels with no results.” That would have shut down the issue concise and to the point.
4. Once the argument escalated, Zelenskyy lost control entirely. He was just reacting to individual remarks, and it turned into a mess. He should have just gone silent, let them rant, and then responded with something constructive.
In short, no doubt about it the so called allies set a trap, and Zelenskyy walked straight into it, hitting every mine along the way. They exploited his emotions, ambition, and stubbornness, and now they’ll showcase him to the world as someone who’s impossible to negotiate with.
And don’t delude yourselves into thinking Americans will see through this. Most voters treat the office of the President (POTUS) and the Oval Office as sacred. To them, Zelenskyy is just a representative of some banana republic that America is graciously helping, and yet he has the audacity to be ungrateful. That will be the dominant reaction.
Yes, the progressive world will side with Zelenskyy, but that doesn’t help much when dealing with Trump. Now, all hope rests on Europe.