The announcement of deploying approximately 12,000 North Korean troops alongside long-range missiles to Russia changes the entire calculus of the Ukrainian war. It brings the prospect of a global conflict closer.
Reports suggest about 1,500 men are already in Vladivostok for advanced training, with an additional 10,500 set to follow. Among them, 1,500 are special forces.
South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol warned on Saturday that North Korea’s involvement in Ukraine poses a “grave security threat” to the world. While Russia will receive a significant material and psychological boost from Pyongyang’s intervention, it is unlikely to suddenly translate into a major military breakthrough for Moscow. However, developments in Asia are unfolding rapidly.
In fact, North Korea is likely to receive missile and nuclear technology from Russia in exchange for its support. This new technology heightens tensions throughout Asia, particularly in South Korea and Japan, where about 28,500 American troops are stationed.
Massive readiness drills were underway on Saturday across South Korea amid looming threats of the North attempting to breach the border after entering the demilitarized zone (DMZ), which marks the separation between the two Koreas.
The strategic elephant in the room is China, which has been the main lifeline of the North Korean regime for decades and is now Russia’s main economic and industrial partner. It is unclear whether China supports this new Russia-North Korea alignment and to what extent.
Beijing faces a predicament similar to what it experienced in 1950, at the onset of the Korean War. At that time, Mao was preparing to land in Taiwan, where the defeated Chiang Kai-shek nationalists had fled, but the outbreak of war in Korea shifted his focus away from the island. Mao was forced to abandon plans regarding Taiwan and redirect his troops to push back the US military, which had almost annihilated North Korean forces and reached the Chinese frontier.
Heightened tensions in East Asia similarly diminish the already remote possibility of reunification with Taiwan. All in the region are on high alert, fearing that China could attempt to exploit North Koreans’ presence in Ukraine to launch some kind of attack on the island. This reduces China’s strategic options and places it more at the mercy of its allies—unless, as some in the West speculate, China is the mastermind behind this tension with unclear objectives.
China, therefore, appears boxed in by Russia’s and North Korea’s plans, which it might not fully support.
The North Korean deployment comes just two weeks before the American elections. The US is divided between the candidates, Democrat Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump, and the current administration might struggle to formulate a clear response to the rapidly evolving war scenarios. Russia and North Korea may have timed this move to maximize their political advantage and cause the most political disruption amid the confusion.
European political unity could be the first casualty of the North Korean deployment, sowing further discord between those who are for or against supporting Ukraine.
