The only way “Old Europe” has to retain its clout is to stop its hesitations, decisively help Ukraine win its war quickly, and then find a future settlement for Russia fitting a Eurasian balance. Without it, France and Germany could pay a long-term high price.
The Russian offensive in Ukraine is falling apart even before new weapons and equipment, promised by the allies, reach the Kyiv army. It could be a significant political blow for Russian President Vladimir Putin and a turn in the war, with primary global outcomes.
“Russia’s costly military campaign in Ukraine has likely significantly depleted Russian equipment and manpower reserves necessary to sustain a successful large-scale offensive in eastern Ukraine. UK Defense Secretary Ben Wallace told the BBC that the UK had not seen the Russian ‘massing of a single force to punch through in a big offensive’ and noted that Russians are now trying to advance in Donbas at a ‘huge cost.’”[1]
Russian casualties are reportedly massive, with some 800 troops per day in the past week or so. Putin should find a way out of the fighting before his army crumbles. Still, Russians are used to fighting pointless wars; the army could carry on with its efforts.
But carrying on fighting doesn’t mean winning the fight. Russia battled mujaheddin in Afghanistan for a decade with no success and growing frustration. The Russian army in Ukraine doesn’t show any sign of enthusiasm or single-minded determination.
Then, the EU should reconsider its so far lukewarm support for Ukraine. It’s very doubtful that Ukraine and its Eastern European friends will cave before desultory Russian efforts after a year of extraordinary results and immense sacrifice.
Ukraine has already politically won the war, and it will thus be a major political force in future European balances, possibly helping to offset the traditional French-German center of gravity.
In this situation, the longer the war goes on, the higher Ukraine’s price for their peace, and the higher the price “Old Europe” will be asked to pay for the future reconstruction of Ukraine and the future continental political settlements.
Conversely, the sooner Ukraine wins a war, with the support of “old Europe,” the lower its price will be in economic and political terms.
Old Europe should move in to end the war soon and stop the useless bloodshed.
Old Europe, so far, was hesitant in its analysis, as it saw the possibility of Russia winning the military confrontation. But after a year of fighting and the dismal results of these few days of the offensive, Russia is more than ever unlikely to turn the tide of war.
Then the real problem is not how to save Ukraine but how to protect Russia from this conflict, almost an attempted suicide, and to uphold some semblance of political balance in the Eurasian continent. Here a quick military Russian defeat could cut short all Moscow’s delusions of some kind of victory to be attained off the battlefield.
Russian political calculations seemed to hinge from the beginning of the war on the bet that the western front supporting Ukraine would eventually give in and leave Kyiv alone, prey to the brutal Russian war machine.
However, despite hesitations, the western front performed its duties well enough to aid Ukraine’s resistance and success but not quickly enough to help deliver a quick victory. Perhaps it is time to change that.
A clear settlement of the war could also help China rethink its general political approach. By dragging on an unwinnable war, Moscow may lead Beijing to believe that a harsh confrontation with the US could have its dividends. In fact, it may have unfathomable global effects, as tensions with America are building up, inflated not only by Chinese balloons floating around the United States.
More than anybody, China needs peace on its northern front to reconcile itself with some form of diminished Russia coming out of the war. New thinking, definitely shelving the Russian invasion of Ukraine in Beijing, will help find a way out of this increasingly tricky predicament.
[1] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-15-2023
