Two elements stand out in the present situation in the Middle East: the intelligence failure in not seeing the attack coming and the ongoing attempt to hijack the political agenda in many Arab countries.
The intelligence failure is the second in less than two years by most Western countries, particularly the European countries. In early 2022, Europe didn’t believe Russia would invade Ukraine. Now, none expected a wild terrorist strike on Israel.
In both cases, there were minority voices indicating the attack was forthcoming, but in both instances, those voices were widely dismissed.
The two severe flops in less than 24 months cast doubt on the mainstream consensus in Western intelligence agencies and the European structures that were caught by surprise by the event. Then, if that happened with Ukraine and Israel, the EU’s own turf, what is their thinking about China, by far the largest and most difficult challenge? The chances of getting China seriously wrong could be enormous.
A similar situation opens for China. Beijing expected Russia to win in a matter of days over Ukraine. Now, it might ostensibly be expected that the war in Gaza could drag on for a long time and possibly even spread with a wave of attempted Islamic terrorist attacks worldwide for years. It would distract Western attention from China and give it time to weather its present difficulties. Here, wishes and reality may blur into one another.
Beijing was wrong on Ukraine; it may be wrong on the Middle East, too. Not only could the Israeli reaction in Gaza be shorter and more effective than anticipated, but the wave of terrorist threats may soon peter out. The US and the world, in general, may not lose focus on Beijing; quite the opposite, they may double their concentration on it. They may suspect China played a role in abetting Iran, the terrorists’ political sponsor, and China has an interest in the diversionary move.
The mirroring mistakes of Western and Chinese agencies could be hazardous and lead to serious miscalculations.
The Arab World
Here, the second element of the complicated equation comes into play. The Hamas plan apparently was to stir the Arab masses against their governments and push them more aggressively toward the US and Israel. This is happening, but perhaps not to the extent the Hamas leaders might have wished, and it is already creating countermeasures.
Arab governments see upsides in more collaboration with Israel: access to its technology and finance, and better ties with the US and the EU. All these elements are now more critical than ever as oil and gas revenues are declining and could dwindle to irrelevance in the future.
On the downside, the prospect of a destructive war with Israel could shake their regimes and lead to them falling. In other words, whatever their people may wish, the governments have no interest whatsoever in having their agendas hijacked by a bunch of terrorists.
This ought to change the cultural approach in those countries. Yes, most of the population, despite being sympathetic to the Palestinian cause, does not want war or terrorism. But there is a dangerous culture that was the breeding ground for the terrorist subculture and allowed it to grow unchecked. The culture was that of extremist Islam with unfettered anti-Jewish propaganda.
The culture made sense as a legacy of the times when people dreamed of canceling Israel from the map, but now that Israel is to be part of the Arab path to development and modernity, it is a massive hurdle.
Arab governments must erase that extremist culture to avoid feeding the terrorist subculture that ultimately undermines their rule. It is a difficult turn, full of potential pitfalls, but it is necessary for the stable survival of those governments. It is also a long-term plan to be conducted cautiously, but it has to start now to stabilize their countries.
If that happens, as it might, one might see in a few months or years that despite the early noises, the Arab world will be more pro-Western than before the attack.
There are many qualms here. After the defeat of Hamas, Palestinians need to have some new resolution, and Israel must pull out from its divisive policies; these are all uncertain, too. But it may happen because long-term forces are pushing for an Israeli-Arab regional integration, and the horizon of Israeli annihilation is fading.
China’s own strategy
The two elements might push China to some deep thinking about its foreign policy strategy, vision of reality, and wishes for the future. Beijing may not want to be dragged into a new failure after botching forecasts on the evolution of COVID-19 and Ukraine. But this will also be part of Beijing’s internal thinking and pondering. Here, we shall see if there will be new movements.
