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Putin’s broader war and his survival calculus

By September, it was clear that while the much-expected Ukrainian offensive didn’t create a breakthrough, neither did the ensuing Russian counteroffensive. Neither side has a decisive advantage over the other. Lawrence Freedman argued[1] convincingly that we must think about the definition of victory for Ukraine, as Kyiv is not set on marching on Moscow. The […]

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Putin out of the fog of war?

It is always tough to tell what’s what in the fog of war, and it has been even more challenging to forecast the results in a conflict where one side, Ukraine, is badly outnumbered by the other, Russia. Comparisons on paper told one story: Ukraine, without a real army 15 months ago, would be steamrolled […]

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Triangle impossible, India-China-US, and a different Silk Road

Russia’s failure in its invasion of Ukraine has weakened Moscow’s old ties with India, for decades a bedrock of Indian foreign relations, and brought to the fore the most complicated geopolitical puzzle of the “new Cold War” — between India, China, and the United States. New Delhi is shifting its position between the other two, […]

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Thanks, but no Tanks. Really?

The German decision to ask for more time to decide whether to supply Ukraine with Leopard tanks may actually have no teeth. After consultations and protracted pondering, Berlin could eventually decide to deliver the weapons. They are necessary to strike hard against the Russians in Kyiv’s long-announced spring offensive. It is not just about foreign […]

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Ukraine, EU, and Values: A Drama in Three Acts

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is recreating the bases of continental and transatlantic politics, but it is also helping to lay the foundation of a new system of values and traditions that unite more than yesterday a part of the world. Act I, Germany One of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s goals at the outset of the […]

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Save Russia before it’s too late

On the night of August 20, the old Russian tradition of terrorism came back. Darya Dugin, daughter of Alexander, top ideologist and advisor to Russian president Vladimir Putin, was killed by a bomb while speeding with her car on a highway out of Moscow. The father was supposed to be with her but changed the […]