North Korea bombards tension and helps Russia

The extended Russian fighting in Ukraine is causing global geopolitical tremors across Eurasia. Seventy years ago, the war in Korea heightened tensions and the threat of war in Europe; now, the conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza are heightening worries and risks in Asia. On Friday, North Korea fired over 200 rounds of artillery that fell […]

Putin’s broader war and his survival calculus

By September, it was clear that while the much-expected Ukrainian offensive didn’t create a breakthrough, neither did the ensuing Russian counteroffensive. Neither side has a decisive advantage over the other. Lawrence Freedman argued[1] convincingly that we must think about the definition of victory for Ukraine, as Kyiv is not set on marching on Moscow. The […]

China’s Tightrope with Russia and Israel

China’s present troubles with the US might be rooted in a misperception of what should have been done in the past. What did China do when America struggled in Iraq and Afghanistan in 2004-2005? Rather than helping it in these difficulties, Beijing kept aloof politically and slowed down the economic and political reforms it had […]

War and Peace with Ukrainian Characteristics

Few in Washington seem overly worried about the apparent stalemate in Ukraine, where Kyiv’s forces can’t break through Russia’s fortified defenses. Meanwhile, America is entirely concentrated on the latest from China – complex malware reportedly able to cripple US cyber systems. According to The New York Times, which broke the story: “The discovery of the malware has […]

DeTrumping America?

Former U.S. president Donald Trump’s call on his supporters to rise in protest against his reportedly impending indictment breaks the first principle in a democratic state: trust in its institutions. A trial can be right or wrong in thousands of ways, but it’s a different ballgame if you don’t accept it. In this way, he says […]

Putin out of the fog of war?

It is always tough to tell what’s what in the fog of war, and it has been even more challenging to forecast the results in a conflict where one side, Ukraine, is badly outnumbered by the other, Russia. Comparisons on paper told one story: Ukraine, without a real army 15 months ago, would be steamrolled […]

Triangle impossible, India-China-US, and a different Silk Road

Russia’s failure in its invasion of Ukraine has weakened Moscow’s old ties with India, for decades a bedrock of Indian foreign relations, and brought to the fore the most complicated geopolitical puzzle of the “new Cold War” — between India, China, and the United States. New Delhi is shifting its position between the other two, […]